7 Daycare Costs and Unexamined Assumptions

Keywords: Skepticism, Census data API

7.1 Case Description

Data journalism is a welcome trend, but it has not always been accompanied by a rise in thoughtful analysis. I saw in a 2015 article from Vox and I was annoyed that the article relied on a map just to show percentages (why not a table?) and then began noticing other problems, such as the lack of a date for the data.

Vox article on day care

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Table 7.1: 2014 Annual Costs for Infant Daycare

State	Cost
Alabama	5,637
Alaska	10,957
Arizona	9,437
Arkansas	5,995
California	11,817
Colorado	13,154
Connecticut	13,880
Delaware	11,000
District of Columbia	22,631
Florida	8,694
Georgia	7,644
Hawaii	8,280
Idaho	7,200
Illinois	12,964
Indiana	8,918
Iowa	9,485
Kansas	11,201
Kentucky	6,294
Louisiana	5,747
Maine	9,512
Maryland	13,932
Massachusetts	17,062
Michigan	9,882
Minnesota	14,366
Mississippi	4,822
Missouri	8,632
Montana	9,062
Nebraska	7,926
Nevada	9,852
New Hampshire	11,810
New Jersey	11,534
New Mexico	7,942
New York	14,144
North Carolina	9,255
North Dakota	8,217
Ohio	8,977
Oklahoma	6,788
Oregon	11,322
Pennsylvania	10,640
Rhode Island	12,867
South Carolina	6,475
South Dakota	5,661
Tennessee	5,857
Texas	8,759
Utah	8,641
Vermont	11,270
Virginia	10,458
Washington	12,733
West Virginia	7,926
Wisconsin	11,579
Wyoming	6,541

Source Child Care Aware® of America

The costs come from a source that gives separate estimates for an infant, a four-year old and a school child at day-care centers and the Vox article doesn’t say which age group it used to calculate the percentages of median income that costs represent. Worse, it uses median household income, when the source used median state income (see source at fn 49, p. 2.). (Unfortunately the source cites to a Census data table that no longer exists.)

7.2 With the right metrics

Do the Vox estimates agree with both the costs reported by Cost of Daycare and the Census 2014 median household income, which is what Vox used?

Table 7.2: 2014 Cost of Day Care for infants and median household income

State	Cost	Median_household_income	Percentage
Alabama	5,637	42,830	13
Alaska	10,957	71,583	15
Arizona	9,437	50,068	19
Arkansas	5,995	41,262	15
California	11,817	61,933	19
Colorado	13,154	61,303	21
Connecticut	13,880	70,048	20
Delaware	11,000	59,716	18
District of Columbia	22,631	71,648	32
Florida	8,694	47,463	18
Georgia	7,644	49,321	15
Hawaii	8,280	69,592	12
Idaho	7,200	47,861	15
Illinois	12,964	57,444	23
Indiana	8,918	49,446	18
Iowa	9,485	53,712	18
Kansas	11,201	52,504	21
Kentucky	6,294	42,958	15
Louisiana	5,747	44,555	13
Maine	9,512	49,462	19
Maryland	13,932	73,971	19
Massachusetts	17,062	69,160	25
Michigan	9,882	49,847	20
Minnesota	14,366	61,481	23
Mississippi	4,822	39,680	12
Missouri	8,632	48,363	18
Montana	9,062	46,328	20
Nebraska	7,926	52,686	15
Nevada	9,852	51,450	19
New Hampshire	11,810	66,532	18
New Jersey	11,534	71,919	16
New Mexico	7,942	44,803	18
New York	14,144	58,878	24
North Carolina	9,255	46,556	20
North Dakota	8,217	59,029	14
Ohio	8,977	49,308	18
Oklahoma	6,788	47,529	14
Oregon	11,322	51,075	22
Pennsylvania	10,640	53,234	20
Rhode Island	12,867	54,891	23
South Carolina	6,475	45,238	14
South Dakota	5,661	50,979	11
Tennessee	5,857	44,361	13
Texas	8,759	53,035	17
Utah	8,641	60,922	14
Vermont	11,270	54,166	21
Virginia	10,458	64,902	16
Washington	12,733	61,366	21
West Virginia	7,926	41,059	19
Wisconsin	11,579	52,622	22
Wyoming	6,541	57,055	11

Sources: source and 2014 U.S. Census ACS Table B19013

Wherever Vox derived its data on median household income, the percentages conflict with the official Census data.

Repeating the table using median family income of families with children under 18 changes the picture even more.

Table 7.3: 2014 Cost of Day Care for infants and median family income for families with children under 18

State	Cost	Median_family_income	Percentage
Alabama	5,637	75,194	7
Alaska	10,957	102,102	11
Arizona	9,437	75,515	12
Arkansas	5,995	67,840	9
California	11,817	86,659	14
Colorado	13,154	91,561	14
Connecticut	13,880	118,884	12
Delaware	11,000	100,387	11
District of Columbia	22,631	156,438	14
Florida	8,694	73,152	12
Georgia	7,644	79,049	10
Hawaii	8,280	86,609	10
Idaho	7,200	68,801	10
Illinois	12,964	91,630	14
Indiana	8,918	77,792	11
Iowa	9,485	84,783	11
Kansas	11,201	82,231	14
Kentucky	6,294	72,934	9
Louisiana	5,747	85,688	7
Maine	9,512	82,313	12
Maryland	13,932	115,514	12
Massachusetts	17,062	120,309	14
Michigan	9,882	83,788	12
Minnesota	14,366	100,317	14
Mississippi	4,822	71,948	7
Missouri	8,632	79,834	11
Montana	9,062	75,129	12
Nebraska	7,926	82,543	10
Nevada	9,852	71,860	14
New Hampshire	11,810	101,759	12
New Jersey	11,534	117,618	10
New Mexico	7,942	67,481	12
New York	14,144	95,033	15
North Carolina	9,255	76,894	12
North Dakota	8,217	92,987	9
Ohio	8,977	85,640	10
Oklahoma	6,788	72,169	9
Oregon	11,322	78,000	15
Pennsylvania	10,640	91,674	12
Rhode Island	12,867	95,256	14
South Carolina	6,475	76,836	8
South Dakota	5,661	81,458	7
Tennessee	5,857	73,317	8
Texas	8,759	79,954	11
Utah	8,641	77,754	11
Vermont	11,270	87,743	13
Virginia	10,458	100,305	10
Washington	12,733	90,150	14
West Virginia	7,926	70,965	11
Wisconsin	11,579	87,677	13
Wyoming	6,541	88,483	7

Sources: Cost of Daycare and 2014 U.S. Census ACS Table B19126

The table below compares the Vox table with this analysis.

Table 7.4: Differences in estates of 2014 Cost of Day Care data for infants as a percentage of median income between Vox article and this paper

State	Vox	This_paper	Difference
Alabama	13	7	6
Alaska	15	11	4
Arizona	19	12	7
Arkansas	15	9	6
California	19	14	5
Colorado	21	14	7
Connecticut	20	12	8
Delaware	18	11	7
District of Columbia	32	14	18
Florida	18	12	6
Georgia	15	10	5
Hawaii	12	10	2
Idaho	15	10	5
Illinois	23	14	9
Indiana	18	11	7
Iowa	18	11	7
Kansas	21	14	7
Kentucky	15	9	6
Louisiana	13	7	6
Maine	19	12	7
Maryland	19	12	7
Massachusetts	25	14	11
Michigan	20	12	8
Minnesota	23	14	9
Mississippi	12	7	5
Missouri	18	11	7
Montana	20	12	8
Nebraska	15	10	5
Nevada	19	14	5
New Hampshire	18	12	6
New Jersey	16	10	6
New Mexico	18	12	6
New York	24	15	9
North Carolina	20	12	8
North Dakota	14	9	5
Ohio	18	10	8
Oklahoma	14	9	5
Oregon	22	15	7
Pennsylvania	20	12	8
Rhode Island	23	14	9
South Carolina	14	8	6
South Dakota	11	7	4
Tennessee	13	8	5
Texas	17	11	6
Utah	14	11	3
Vermont	21	13	8
Virginia	16	10	6
Washington	21	14	7
West Virginia	19	11	8
Wisconsin	22	13	9
Wyoming	11	7	4

7.3 Takeaway

Доверяй, но проверяй

Trust, but verify. This is true of any data, but especially data that you can trace trace to an authoritative source. And it is critical to think about the choice of a benchmark to evaluate one set of data against another. Here, the costs of day care came from a credible source and seem reasonable, based on anecdotal evidence. If this were more than an exercise, it would be important to seek out alternative estimates.

The data used to provide the cost of day care as a percentage of median household income proved a poor choice. Not all households have children. There is, however, data not only for family households, but even for families with children under 18. Relatively few households residing in retirement communities have day care expenses; it also turns out that families with children under 18 have a higher median income than the all household group.

There may be a way to determine median income of families with one or more children under 6, since the number of those families is collected or estimated (between the full Census years), which would provide an even better metric.

The data you have is not always the data you need.

Data sources:

• Cost of Daycare, Appendix I: 2014 Average Annual Cost of Full-Time Child Care by State, pp. 53-54 in pdf

• U.S. Census American Community Survey for 2014, using the R package by Ezra Haber Glenn (2018). acs: Download, Manipulate, and Present American Community Survey and Decennial Data from the US Census. R package version 2.1.3. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=acs